Measuring Change: Birth Rates, Death Rates, Fertility and the Demographic Transition

Hook: why use rates?

In 2023 there were 351,477 births in Canada (Statistics Canada). Is that a lot? It depends! The same number of births would be enormous in Nova Scotia and tiny in India. To compare places of different sizes, geographers turn counts into rates: how many per 1 000 people, or per woman, or percent per year.

The key rates

• Crude birth rate (CBR) = births ÷ population × 1 000
• Crude death rate (CDR) = deaths ÷ population × 1 000
• Rate of natural increase (%) = (CBR − CDR) ÷ 10
• Growth rate (%) = population change ÷ starting population × 100 (this one includes migration)

They are called crude because they compare births or deaths with the whole population, not just the people most likely to have babies or to die. A country with many seniors can have a high death rate even if its health care is excellent.

Fertility: Canada's record lows

The total fertility rate (TFR) tells you how many children, on average, each woman would have. About 2.1 is the replacement level: enough to replace two parents, with a little extra because not every child survives to adulthood.

According to Statistics Canada, Canada's TFR fell to a record low of 1.26 children per woman in 2023. It has been generally declining for more than 15 years. British Columbia had the lowest rate, 1.00. Statistics Canada says Canada has joined the group of "lowest-low" fertility countries (1.3 or less), along with South Korea, Spain, Italy and Japan. Mothers are also older: in 2023, 26.5% of mothers were 35 or older, compared with 10.7% in 1993.

Why are people having fewer children? Researchers point to the high cost of housing and child care, more years in school, more women in paid work, and personal choice. These are interrelationships: economic and social factors affect a demographic trend.

The rule of 70

If a population grows at a steady rate, you can estimate its doubling time:

Doubling time ≈ 70 ÷ growth rate (%)

At 1% a year, a population doubles in about 70 years. At 3.2% (Canada's rate in 2023), it would double in about 70 ÷ 3.2 ≈ 22 years, if that rate continued. It didn't: growth slowed sharply after 2024. That is why geographers are careful with predictions based on one year.

The demographic transition model (DTM)

The DTM shows a pattern many countries have followed:

1. Stage 1 (high stationary): high birth and death rates. Little growth. Food shortages and disease keep death rates high. No country is fully in stage 1 today.
2. Stage 2 (early expanding): death rates fall quickly (cleaner water, vaccines, more food) but birth rates stay high. The population grows fast.
3. Stage 3 (late expanding): birth rates fall (more education, especially for girls, more people in cities, access to family planning, children less needed as farm workers). Growth slows.
4. Stage 4 (low stationary): low birth and death rates. Slow or no growth.
5. Stage 5 (declining?): birth rate drops below the death rate. Without immigration, the population shrinks. Japan is often given as an example.

Canada is in stage 4, moving toward stage 5: fertility is far below replacement, and Statistics Canada recorded quarters in 2025 and 2026 with more deaths than births. Immigration is what keeps Canada's population from shrinking in most years.

Life expectancy and death rates

Canadians live long lives on average, and women live longer than men on average. As more people live into their 80s and 90s, the number of deaths rises each year because the population is older, even though health care has improved. This is why Canada's crude death rate can rise while life expectancy stays high. It is a good example of why you must think about age structure when reading crude rates (next lesson).