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D. Changing Populations · Changing Populations: Canada's People, Patterns and Trends

Growing and Shrinking Communities: Opportunities and Challenges

D2.3 D1.5 A2.2About 70 minutes
Learning goals
  • I can describe how population growth and demographic shifts create opportunities and challenges in communities in Canada.
  • I can explain how the same change affects different individuals and groups (youth, seniors, newcomers, Indigenous peoples, workers, businesses).
  • I can compare growing and shrinking communities in different parts of Canada.
  • I can discuss community change respectfully, considering diverse perspectives.

Words to know

boomtown
A community that grows very quickly, often because of a new industry or resource.
single-industry town
A town that depends mostly on one employer or industry, such as a mine or mill.
gentrification
When higher-income people move into a lower-income neighbourhood, raising rents and changing its character, which can push long-time residents out.
intensification
Adding more homes and people to areas that are already built up, for example apartments near transit.
age-friendly community
A community designed so people of all ages and abilities can live safely, stay active and take part.
stakeholder
A person or group affected by, or interested in, a decision.

Hook: same province, different stories

From 2016 to 2021, London, Ontario grew 10.0%, while Thunder Bay grew 1.3% (Statistics Canada). In London, people worried about rising rents and crowded schools. In parts of northern Ontario, people worried about keeping young people and finding enough workers. Growth and decline both bring opportunities and challenges, and they are different for each person.

Population growth, 2016 to 20210%2%4%6%8%6.3%Urban areas5.2%Canada0.4%Rural areasSource: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (Feb. 2022)
From 2016 to 2021, urban areas grew 6.3%, while rural areas grew only 0.4%. Many rural communities are ageing and growing slowly.
Two kinds of community change (general patterns)Fast-growing communityShrinking or ageing community+jobs, new businesses+new schools, services+diversity, energy−housing costs rise−crowded schools, traffic−farmland lost+affordable housing+close-knit, quieter+room for newcomers−school or clinic closes−fewer workers, shops−smaller tax basehouses being builtdashed = empty homes
Fast growth and decline each bring opportunities (+) and challenges (−). Every community's mix is different.

Fast-growing communities

Opportunities: more jobs and businesses; new schools, recreation centres and transit; a bigger tax base to pay for services; diverse cultures, foods and ideas.

Challenges: housing costs rise faster than incomes; schools and hospitals fill up before new ones are built; traffic and long commutes; loss of farmland and green space; long-time residents may feel the community is changing too fast.

Example: Kelowna, B.C. (+14.0% from 2016 to 2021) attracted retirees and families. Growth brought construction jobs and new amenities, but also high housing costs and more homes built in wildfire-prone hills.

Shrinking or ageing communities

Opportunities: more affordable housing; space for newcomers and remote workers; strong community ties; chances to reinvent the local economy.

Challenges: schools, clinics and stores may close; fewer workers and volunteers; a smaller tax base for roads and water systems; young people leave.

Example: Elliot Lake, Ontario was built around uranium mining. When the mines closed in the 1990s, the town reinvented itself as a retirement community, marketing affordable homes to retirees. That created new opportunities, but also an older population that needs more health care.

Same change, different people

A geographer always asks: opportunity or challenge for whom? The same change can help one group and hurt another, as the table shows.

Change in a communityOpportunity for...Challenge for...
Rapid growth from immigrationBusinesses needing workers; newcomers finding jobs; cultural communitiesRenters facing rising costs; newcomers whose credentials aren't recognized; crowded schools
Ageing populationHealth-care and home-care workers; seniors' businessesSeniors without nearby services; family caregivers; small-town budgets
Young, growing First Nations or Inuit communityYouth leadership; language and cultural revitalization; a future workforceHousing shortages; schools and services that need to expand; distance from post-secondary education
Gentrification of an older city neighbourhoodOwners whose homes rise in value; new businessesLong-time renters, small shops and lower-income families who may be pushed out
Remote workers moving to a small townLocal stores and trades; the town's tax baseLocal young people priced out of housing
One change can be an opportunity for some people and a challenge for others.
Worked example

Let's analyse a community change from several perspectives (A2.2)

A small Ontario town of 8 000 people plans to approve a 400-home subdivision on farmland. Describe opportunities and challenges for four stakeholders.

  1. Young families looking for homes: opportunity: more homes, maybe more affordable than the city. Challenge: they may need a car to reach jobs.
  2. Seniors in the town: opportunity: more shops and services as the town grows. Challenge: rising taxes or traffic; changes to a familiar place.
  3. Local farmers: opportunity: one farmer can sell land at a high price. Challenge: neighbouring farms face more traffic and complaints, and farmland is lost permanently.
  4. The First Nation whose treaty territory includes the land: they have a right to be consulted where their treaty rights may be affected; concerns may include water, wildlife and sites of cultural importance.
  5. Conclusion: the decision should weigh all perspectives, perhaps by building at higher density on less land, protecting wetlands, and planning a school and transit early.

The subdivision is an opportunity for some groups and a challenge for others. Good planning tries to reduce challenges while keeping opportunities.

Discussing community change respectfully (A2.2)

Community change can feel personal: someone's family farm, someone's rent, someone's new home. In discussion:

  • Describe effects, not blame. ("Rents rose" rather than "newcomers raised rents".)
  • Ask people who live the experience, and listen.
  • Separate facts (data) from values (what people care about). Both matter.
  • Look for solutions that work for more than one group.
Hands-on activity

Stakeholder role-play at the kitchen table

You need: 3 or 4 family members or friends, index cards or scraps of paper.

  1. Choose a real or imagined change in your community: a new apartment tower, a school closing, a new transit line, a seniors' residence.
  2. Write one stakeholder on each card: a teenager, a senior, a newcomer family, a local business owner, a farmer, a First Nation council member, a city planner.
  3. Each person draws a card and has 1 minute to explain one opportunity and one challenge from that point of view.
  4. Together, propose a solution that helps at least three stakeholders.
  5. Write a short summary of the solution and who it helps.

Look for: realistic opportunities and challenges for each role, respectful tone, and a solution that addresses more than one group's needs.

Just for fun

In a growing suburb, the Welcome to sign can be out of date before the paint dries. Some towns just put a smile on the sign and skip the population number.

Your turn

1

Give two opportunities and two challenges of rapid population growth in a community.

2

Give two challenges for a community whose population is ageing and shrinking.

3

How did Elliot Lake respond when its mines closed?

4

Rural areas grew 0.4% from 2016 to 2021. What does that suggest about many rural communities?

5

Explain how gentrification can be an opportunity for some and a challenge for others.

6

Why should a First Nation be consulted about development on its treaty territory?

More practice: warm-up

1

What is a boomtown?

2

What is a stakeholder?

3

Which grew faster from 2016 to 2021: London, Ont. or Thunder Bay?

4

What is an age-friendly community?

5

What is intensification?

More practice: on your own

1

Why can a young, growing First Nation community be both an opportunity and a challenge?

2

Remote workers move into a small town. Describe one effect on local young people.

3

How might an ageing population create business opportunities?

4

Why is "newcomers raised rents" an unfair way to describe housing problems?

5

Compare the challenges of a fast-growing suburb with those of a shrinking northern town.

Challenge

1

Propose a plan for a shrinking town to attract new residents. Evaluate one risk of your plan.

2

Using D1.5 thinking, compare a growing Canadian suburb with a fast-growing city in another part of the world.

3

Who should decide whether a farm becomes a subdivision? Justify your answer.

Check your understanding

Quiz

1.

Which is a challenge of rapid population growth?

2.

Which is an opportunity for a shrinking community?

3.

How much did rural areas grow from 2016 to 2021?

4.

Gentrification is most likely to be a challenge for:

5.

Which statement discusses community change most respectfully?

6.

Elliot Lake, Ontario, reinvented itself after mine closures as:

For parents and teachers

Big idea: D2.3 asks how population growth and demographic shifts create opportunities and challenges for individuals and groups. Comparing communities supports D1.5, and respectful discussion supports A2.2.

Common difficulties:

  • Seeing change as all good or all bad. Push for "for whom?"
  • Blaming groups. Model effect-based language.
  • Forgetting Indigenous rights in land-use decisions.

How to help: Notice changes in your own community (new buildings, closed stores, new services) and discuss who benefits and who doesn't. The role-play works well with grandparents, who can share how the community has changed over decades.